![]() ![]() They predicted that within Japan and South Korea, security hawks might call for nuclear weapons as a hedge against American withdrawal from the world.īut if the West’s attempts to preserve its credibility are too clumsy, they could also lead to disorder - in particular, if the West throws Russia out of the global economy and the institutions that govern it.įor the last few decades, western powers have benefited from international institutions that they designed and policed. ![]() I recently spoke to well-connected military strategists in Tokyo and Seoul, who were disappointed by the West’s reaction to Russian expansionism. If other countries view Russia’s actions as cost-free, they could carry out copy-cat incursions.Īmerica’s allies could also react in worrying ways if they lose trust in western deterrence. China may one day want to defend its citizens overseas, in the same way that Putin sees himself as the defender of ethnic Russians. Just look at the Middle East, where Iran and Saudi Arabia are both defending their “people” across borders. ![]() Yet these ideas remain popular outside the West. In his March 18 speech, Putin expressed three ideas that Europeans have rejected since World War Two - nationalism that is not tempered by the guilt of war identity defined by ethnicity, rather than geography or institutions and social conservatism based in religion. The consequences of Crimea could be even more dramatic at a global level than within the post-Soviet countries. But the West needs to think more about how its actions are seen beyond the Kremlin. They face two imperfect options: inaction in the face of Russia’s territorial aggression, and reacting so strongly that they unravel the international system that has sustained order for the last five decades.Īs pro-Russian protesters declare a “people’s republic” in the Ukrainian city of Donetsk, Western leaders are smart to focus on deterring Putin from expanding beyond Crimea. These words - from a senior British official - sum up the disappointment and bewilderment of western diplomats struggling to handle Russia. “We have spent thirty years trying to integrate Russia into the international system, and now we are trying to kick it out again.” ![]()
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